My simulations indicate a very small edge with the Chiefs winning by four. I don't usually bet games with this small of an edge, but I like this spot with the Chiefs who are guaranteed a playoff spot thanks to the Ravens loss this afternoon. Kansas City will be short handed defensively without Houston and Gaines, but I think they will be ready to play on their home field against a divisional rival. If the Chiefs win the next two games they will earn a first round bye and a much easier matchup in the playoffs.

This should a tightly contested, low-scoring game, which makes taking the points attractive. The road team has covered six straight in this series. Back Denver with the hook.

With two games left, the Broncos could find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs. They face a Chiefs team coming off a home loss and one that is in better shape to control their playoff destiny. Still, besides the Chiefs’ dominance over the Raiders, they've failed to exhibit quality football. Even in a must-win home spot, look for similar issues to arise. Back the underdog.

Do not bother hunting for a statistic or tendency that would support this pick. There is none. Both teams are trending Under. The past three Broncos' games have topped out at 30 points, the past two Chiefs' games at 36. But, for what could be the tiniest total of the season, you would figure nasty weather is forecast. While winds could be stiff, Kansas City is expecting temperatures in the high 50s. That’s the only number I need. Go Over.

The Chiefs are the second-best Under team in the league at 10-4, and there are plenty of reasons to suggest Sunday night's game stays Under. This begins with a Denver offense that has produced just 13 points in its last two games. Denver has stayed Under in its last three. Kansas City produced a rare Over in a 30-27 win at Denver last month, but the conditions were nothing close to what is expected Sunday night at Arrowhead, with heavy rain and winds up to 23 mph. Play the Under.

This is a HUGE game in the AFC with a lot of playoff implications. The Chiefs lost a winnable game last week, which makes this a must-win scenario at home. I like the Chiefs offense to be able to do enough versus a very tough Broncos defense. Denver’s offense won’t have success against KC’s pass rush. Lay the points.