Teams typically play well in the wake of a coach getting fired, and when the coach that just got fired has the worst record in the Super Bowl era (min. 50 attempts), there's nowhere to go but up. The Jaguars are a bad team, but it's not like they've been getting blown out of late. Doug Marrone, the interim head coach, did a good job with the Bills and could inject some life into the team as he makes a bid for a permanent job. The Titans can be exploited in the secondary, and that helps the odds of a backdoor cover if the Jags are down late.

Perhaps the Jags will get a spark from their coach getting fired. They're continually close, only to lose at the end. My simulations show them winning outright 44 percent of the time, making the +185 moneyline a strong play.

With the coaching change in Jacksonville, you’ll definitely see an inspired effort from the Jags. The problem is they are facing a Titans team that has the playoffs in their sights. They’ll avoid a letdown after their big win in KC and take care of business. Lay the points.