In their first matchup with Tampa Bay, the Saints outplayed the Bucs most of the way but were felled by three turnovers and myriad other self-inflicted ailments in the 16-11 loss. New Orleans held Tampa Bay to just 270 total yards but 13 penalties for 104 yards helped extend drives for the Bucs. Tampa Bay seems to a be trendy team, but the Bucs are likely at least a year away from contention on the NFC. The Saints have the better club and were left kicking themselves for missed opportunities the first meeting. They set the record straight Saturday.

Saints corner Delvin Breaux likely won't play, which should help Tampa Bay's Mike Evans break out of his slump. The Buccaneers are playing for their playoff lives and they've covered five straight games. They've also covered four of the past five meetings with New Orleans. Take the points.

Tampa Bay's defense has been the driving force to its success over the past five weeks, which includes a 16-11 win against the Saints three weeks ago. The Bucs have stayed Under the total in their last five and they almost pulled off a win at Dallas last week. This is essentially a playoff game for Tampa Bay sitting in the No. 7 slot, and I expect everything the Bucs have been doing well lately to continue. The top play in this game for me is the total staying Under.

The Bucs are playing for a playoff spot, while the Saints have little to play for heading into an offseason that could see Sean Payton leave town. The Bucs defense also completely shut down Drew Brees and the Saints just two weeks ago. The Saints offense has been more miss than hit this season, despite their big resurgence against the Cardinals last week. I'm giving the edge to the Bucs, who have covered in each of their last six games after playing the Cowboys tight on Sunday night. The Saints haven't been bulletproof at home, losing two of their last three in the Superdome.

The Bucs are coming off a turnover-filled loss at the Cowboys, while the Saints are coming off a defenseless victory at the Cardinals. What can a team fix within the course of a week? Ball security. The Saints' defense will be the perfect remedy for the Bucs' offense. Grab the points in this divisional rivalry.