The Chiefs are on a roll at the right time, covering three straight heading into this matchup. The Titans were able to win a low-scoring game at home against Denver last week, but I think they'll have more problems here in chilly conditions on the road. The Chiefs' bend-but-don't-break defense is eighth in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed; it's reasonable to expect them to shut down Marcus Mariota once he crosses midfield. I'm expecting at least one big special-teams play for the Chiefs to help cover the number here.

This is another game with a playoff feel. Marcus Mariota is starting to come into his own. It’ll be his mobility that’ll give a great defense in Kansas City some fits. I like how the Chiefs are starting to figure things out offensively. While they'll probably win, they won't cover.

The Chiefs will certainly miss Derrick Johnson, but they are still the much better team playing in one of the toughest stadiums for opposing teams. I have the Chiefs as 8-point favorites against the Titans at Arrowhead Stadium. The Titans have plenty of weapons with Mariota, Murray and Walker, but the Chiefs have a significant edge on defense and special teams.

Call this the Throwback Bowl. Why? Get ready for a lot of handoffs as these teams gear up for brutally cold weather. The early forecast calls for 5-degree temperatures -- that’s Fahrenheit, not Celsius. While the Titans are trending Over this season, they are coming off a 13-10 game. The Chiefs have gone Under in seven of their past nine. They are so-so in run defense, which is all the more reason to assume Tennessee will adhere to a clock-eating ground game.

The Titans are riding high after beating the Super Bowl champs, but winning at Kansas City in December is no easy feat. Just ask Oakland. The Chiefs have extra rest after last Thursday's win over the Raiders, and Andy Reid's teams typically thrive with additional preparation time. My projections show K.C. winning by nine and covering 58 percent of the time.