Cincinnati will be playing their Super Bowl this week, getting a chance to play spoiler against their biggest rivals at home. With Vontaze Burfict on the field, expect this to be an ugly one, where Pittsburgh players want no part of going over the middle. The Bengals are still without A.J. Green, which makes things much easier for an improved Steelers defense. These two teams have been Under 45.5 points in 15 of their last 20 games dating back to 2007, which tells you everything you need to know about this rivalry.

The Bengals are playing better lately, and this game means everything to them. My simulations have Cincy winning outright 49 percent of the time, making this a strong moneyline play at +150. I won't be surprised to see the Bengals beat the Steelers for only the second time in the past eight meetings.

Fear the Steelers, says RB Le’Veon Bell. One reason is Bell himself, who is putting up MVP-caliber numbers. This spread will rise if Bengals WR A.J. Green misses his fourth straight game. Even if he returns, Pittsburgh is the play. Bell and brigade have covered in four straight and excel in December, winning 11 of their last 13 ATS. Plus, the Steelers have failed to cover in only four of the last 22 trips to Cincy. The Bengals might handle downtrodden foes, but are 0-6-1 against teams over .500.

The Steelers were laying -3 at home in a 24-16 Week 2 win the last time they met, and now they're laying -3 this week in Cincinnati. That's a 6.5-point swing. Some of it's warranted because the Bengals haven't looked good for most of the season, but they've been sharp the last two weeks. I have the Steelers three points better on a neutral field. The Bengals aren't playing for a playoff berth for the first time in six years, but this will serve as their Super Bowl of sorts to derail hated Pittsburgh at home.