The Texans are a strong home team and my simulations have them covering this number 62 percent of the time. For all intents and purposes, Jacksonville's season ended long ago. Lay the points.

The Texans have a prime opportunity Sunday to take control of the dismal AFC South, as they host the Jaguars while the Titans and Colts face tough road games. Houston got its second road win of the season last week and now returns home where it has a 5-1 record. The Texans were a slight underdog at Jacksonville at dominated most of the way before a late Jags rally made it a 24-21 final. For a team that has lost eight straight and appears to be fading fast, the Jaguars are getting too much respect here with a spread inside of a touchdown.

I have to hop on Houston if we're only laying five points here. The Texans aren't a team I trust in most spots, but at home against a bad Jaguars team, I figure they can win by at least a touchdown. The Texans have won five straight against the Jags, and the only margin of victory that was less than six during that stretch came earlier this year in Jacksonville. I'm not all that worried about a backdoor cover from Bortles consider Houston's quality pass defense; a game-sealing pick-six is far more likely.

Jadeveon Clowney is healthy and disruptive, and that likely spells a couple key mistakes by Blake Bortles. The Texans control their destiny in the division and they'll take care of business at home, like they usually do. Lay the points.