This line appears to present a bit of an overreaction to the Colts? thrashing of the Jets on Monday night. Although the Texans have been dreadful on the road with a 1-5 record, their No. 6-rated defense should keep them in an important game in the weak NFC South. The Colts are still No. 28 in the league in total defense, one of few teams against which offense-challenged Houston can likely have some success. I like the points here, but of course there would be enhanced value if it reaches the key number of 7.

The Texans have gone 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight against AFC South teams, but they're currently on a three-game losing streak (0-3 ATS) and there aren't a lot of positives to note, especially offensively. This is also another road game for the Texans, where they have gone 1-5 ATS this season. On the other side we have Andrew Luck playing his best football of the season in his last three starts. Luck looks like the 2014 version of Luck, which is great news for the Colts here looking to take over first place.

The Texans were clearly fool's gold at 6-3, and that's played out as expected over the last three weeks. I think there's a good chance they lose this game too, but laying six points with the Colts is nonsense. The Texans have the run game to dominate the Colts' front seven, and the Houston defense is good enough to slow down Andrew Luck. Indy gets one less day of preparation after winning a scrimmage against the Jets on Monday, and the Texans have to be in desperation mode here. They won by three in Houston when these two teams played earlier this season, and this line should be Colts -3.

The Texans aren't flashy, and they've lost three straight. But this is the same team that beat the Colts in overtime in mid-October. My simulations show Houston winning outright 41 percent of the time, giving us great value on the moneyline at +220.