The Jets rank in the bottom third in every pass defense category, and Andrew Luck -- who missed a game with a concussion -- should get back in his groove Monday night. Before getting hurt, Luck had led Indy to wins in four of six games while averaging at least 7.8 yards per attempt five times. Against a banged-up Jets defense, Luck and the rested Colts are the play.

I already have an Over pick on this game, and after watching the Texans get beat up on Sunday, I think the Colts have extra incentive to win here in primetime and turn the AFC South into a three-way tie. Andrew Luck, Ryan Kelly and Vontae Davis are all good to go against the Jets, and T.Y. Hilton is also expected to play despite his questionable tag. Muhammad Wilkerson suffered a setback Saturday, and that's more big news for the Colts' offense. I can't see Ryan Fitzpatrick and company keeping up with Luck if the Indy QB is on his game.

We've got a spot here with two bad defenses that don't create any turnovers, and I like both offenses to fare well and get this game Over the total. The Colts have gone Over in all five road games this season and Andrew Luck just started to get into the swing of things before getting injured and missing the Thanksgiving game. I also like Ryan Fitzpatrick and the solid Jets' receiving corps to move the ball against the Colts' 30th-ranked defense. Great weather and no wind. All signs point to the Over.

The Colts look like they’ll have the services of Andrew Luck in this game. And while the Jets have played better defensively over the last two weeks, their offense still struggles to find consistency. Trust the team that has the better offense.

The Colts are expected to get Andrew Luck back after he missed the team's Thanksgiving game with a concussion. Unfortunately for the Colts, his return isn't going to help DVOA's 32nd-ranked defense against a quality Jets rushing attack. Luck should be able to move the ball against a bad Jets secondary, and while I'm not sure I'm confident enough to back a mediocre Colts team on the road, I think there's going to be plenty of points in this game.