This screams letdown spot for the Chiefs, who won a 75-minute thriller in Denver on Sunday night and have a huge matchup with Oakland scheduled for Thursday. In between, they get a Falcons team who ranks No. 1 in DVOA after 12 weeks of football. The Falcons are going to be potential fade material down the stretch with Desmond Trufant out, but it's not like Kansas City has the receivers to take advantage of the injury. If the Chiefs pass rush can get home often enough, they'll have a shot at winning a low-scoring game, but I think the Falcons have runaway potential if they don't.

The Chiefs are the most opportunistic team in the NFL, with a plus-14 turnover margin helped by staying conservative and forcing a league-high 24 turnovers. They aren't going to stop the Falcons from scoring, but they will get a couple of turnovers that will give them a short field. Atlanta has gone Over the total in nine of 11 games, with an average score of 32-27. The total here favors the Chiefs to slow down the Falcons, but even the best defenses they've played this season have had trouble controlling the pace. Follow the Over trend here.

The Chiefs just showed their grit in a Monday night win at Denver, and now they go on the road again to face the high-flying Falcons. K.C.'s run game and defense will travel well. The Chiefs are on a 6-1 run, with the only loss coming by two points. Grab the points here as my projections show K.C. covering 62 percent of the time and quite possibly winning outright.