Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
My position on this game is all about Baltimore. The Ravens rank as the best defense in the NFL in terms of yardage allowed, including the number one rush defense allowing just 79 yards per game. Baltimore has been disaster on the offensive side of the ball and I don't see that changing this afternoon in Dallas. Take the Under 44.5 as my simulations have this game at 41 points.
I’ve faded the Cowboys a couple of times in the past several weeks and have nothing to show it. But I’ll be going against them again Sunday, as I can’t resist getting a key number with a competent team against such a public-favored opponent. The trends show the Cowboys play poorly ATS as a large home favorite in recent seasons, and Baltimore’s top-ranked defense, which allows just 71.3 rushing yards per game, should slow Ezekiel Elliott a bit. I’ll take a full touchdown behind the league’s top defensive club.
I'm not sure any defense is capable of slowing down the Cowboys, but Baltimore sure has a good case to be the one. They're easily the league's best rush defense, ranking No. 1 in DVOA and yards per attempt (3.3). They do almost as well against the pass and are giving up a smaller percentage of scoring drives than any team. On the flip side, the Ravens have been awful on offense, and the Cowboys' surprisingly solid defense should be able to keep them at bay in this match. Getting to this point total would take six touchdowns and a field goal, and that's too much scoring for this matchup.
Dallas has been an unstoppable machine and as much as I dislike the Ravens, I respect their defense very much. How can I not? Baltimore is ranked No. 1 in the NFL, allowing only 281 ypg, including the No 1-ranked rush defense, allowing just 71 ypg. That has me believing Dallas will face its toughest resistance on the ground. I don't expect the Ravens offense to fare well, so I'm taking the Under with it entirely based on their defense, which has gone 2-0-1 to the Under its last three games. Dallas has gone 4-2 to the Under in its last six games.