Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
This line is so inflated that it's just an absolute must play in terms of value. Losing Gronk and Brady is obviously a big hit to the Patriots, but they are still a very good football team with the best coach in the game on their side. My simulations have the Patriots losing by just three with a projected score of 25-22 with the Cardinals winning. Take the points and watch Jimmy Garoppolo connect with Martellus Bennett to keep the Pats' within the number.
We're entering uncharted territory in terms of the oddsmakers catching up with the Arizona Cardinals' homefield advantage. Sure, the Patriots will be easing backup Jimmy Garoppolo into the fold, and Rob Gronkowski has been ruled out. Yet this is a spot Garoppolo was prepared for a season ago until Brady's suspension was initially overturned. Expect the Patriots vanilla offensive game plan to churn the clock and get the Cardinals out of their rhythm. Arizona thrives on big plays, a strength that started to evaporate toward the end of last season.
Look for the Cardinals to come out slinging early and often like last year when their first five games went Over the total. As I mentioned in backing the Cardinals ATS, they'll create a fast pace that a weakened New England defense isn't equipped to handle. Go Over.
We've got a QB in Jimmy Garoppolo making his first NFL start on the road against a Cardinals squad that went 13-3 last year before losing in the NFC title game. Arizona might even be better this year. I have all the respect in the world for Bill Belichick and his ability to game-plan when given a few weeks to prepare, but Garoppolo is given too much credit here in the number. Even with Tom Brady last season, the Pats lost their last three road games. I expect the Cards to start strong like last year when they covered four of their first five. The pace of the game will be fast and the Pats' defense, which traded sack leader Chandler Jones to Arizona and will be without suspended Rob Ninkovich (banned substance usage), isn't as good as recent years. Cardinals -6 is the play in a game that shouldn't be that close.
Most of the media focus on this Sunday Night Football matchup will be on the absence of New England quarterback Tom Brady and replacement Jimmy Garoppolo making his first career start. However, the Patriots are much-improved defensively and should be able to hold Arizona's Carson Palmer in check. The price on the Pats is too juicy, with my simulations giving them a 40 percent shot to win.