Denver beat Carolina in the Super Bowl with great defense, something the Broncos should be able to do again in the NFL season opener on Thursday Night Football. The Broncos won despite Peyton Manning playing terribly in the final game of his career, so there's no reason they can't do the same with Trevor Siemian under center, especially at home. My simulations give Denver a 50-50 shot to win outright, making this moneyline attractive.

Weird to see the defending champs receiving three points at home in their opener. Then again, how often does the titlist's quarterback retire? Stepping into Peyton Manning's worn shoes is Trevor Siemian. He takes his first legitimate NFL snap against last year's sixth-stingiest defense, which also ranked first in interceptions, tied for first in fumbles recovered and sixth in sacks. Good luck, kid. And while some teams fend off a Super Bowl hangover, the Broncos are vulnerable to the affliction.