Celtics vs. Heat NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 4 odds, trends: Miami finally favored and taking solid spread action, bettors like Caleb Martin to continue scoring binge
Things are shaping up for an unprecedented 24 hours or so in the Florida sports scene as Tuesday night the eighth-seeded Miami Heat can sweep out the Boston Celtics in the NBA's Eastern Conference Finals, and on Wednesday the wild card Florida Panthers can sweep out the Carolina Hurricanes in the NHL's version of the same series. The Heat are favored for the first time in their series and are taking solid spread action at BetMGM, with Caleb Martin taking the heaviest player props action – which would be very unusual if this were a regular-season game. Click here for model picks.
The Heat opened at -2.5 at BetMGM but are down to -1.5, with 67% of the bets and 74% of the money on Miami. The total has risen from 215.5 to 216.5 with 83% of the bets and 82% of the money on the Over. At +100 on the money line, Boston is taking 52% of the bets and 46% of the money.
Miami was +8.5 and +9.5 for the first two games in Boston and then +4.5 for Sunday's Game 3, a 128-102 Heat rout. It was the largest win (26 points) by a No. 8 seed in NBA history. The Heat got 81 points in that game from undrafted players, the most in a postseason game in modern draft era (since 1966). Martin, undrafted in 2019 out of Nevada, had 18 of those points and is averaging 19.3 points per game in the series on 63.3% shooting, compared to 9.6 PPG on 46.3% shooting during the regular season.
Martin Over 11.5 points (-130) and Over 13.5 combined points and assists (-130) are both taking heavy action, with 99% of the points wagers on the Over. Other popular props: Miami's Bam Adebayo Over 31.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (-105); and Adebayo Over 17.5 points (-130); and Boston's Al Horford to score the first field goal (+1800).
Since conferences formed before the 1970-71 season, there has never been a year in which both conference finals series ended in sweeps, but that's what happened in the West on Monday night. The NBA Finals will start in Denver on June 1 regardless of when Heat-Celtics ends. Teams are 0-150 in playoff series all-time when trailing 3-0.
Miami was +4000 to sweep before this series began and is now -120. It is a +275 second favorite behind Denver (-275) for the NBA title. Only two teams who ranked last in points per game during the regular season reached the NBA Finals: the 1964 Warriors and 1956 Pistons. Miami is one win from joining that group. The Heat had 13 fewer wins than the Celtics this season. It's the largest gap by a team up 3-0 in a best-of-seven series in NBA history.
Get more out of your SportsLine subscription!
- Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
- DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
- Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
- Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy
Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.
Share This Story