2022 NBA MVP odds: Kevin Durant's 4-6 week injury absence likely takes him out of running for award, now Steph Curry's to lose

The chances of Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry winning his third career NBA MVP Award got a lot better over the weekend and it had nothing to do with anything he did but because former teammate Kevin Durant of the Brooklyn Nets injured his knee Saturday in a 120-105 win over the New Orleans Pelicans and will miss 4-6 weeks. Curry is the +180 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook with Durant dropping down to +700.

Here's why I wouldn't place a bet on Durant even though he's pretty clearly the best player in the world and leads the NBA in scoring at 29.3 ppg: No player has won MVP while missing more than 11 games since Bill Walton in 1976-77. Durant already has missed six for various reasons – Brooklyn is 3-3 in those -- and a best-case scenario of his return in four weeks from an MCL sprain would mean he'd miss another 13.

It's probably fair to say the Nets will not let him return in four weeks as they obviously are playing the long game in battling for a title. In February 2017 while playing with Curry and the Warriors, Durant suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain and missed a little more than five weeks. Durant had scored at least 25 points in a franchise record-tying 12 straight games before leaving Saturday after 12 minutes on the court.

In a way, it's a positive thing that the Nets' schedule is about to get road-heavy because All-Star guard Kyrie Irving can only play on the road (although not Jan. 29 at Golden State in an ABC Saturday night game because of San Francisco's COVID regulations). Brooklyn plays at Cleveland this afternoon. Below is the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast on the Nets without Durant. 

No KD for up to six weeks obviously could also hamper Brooklyn's chances of finishing with the best record in the East and home-court advantage throughout the conference playoffs. The Nets are a half-game behind the East-leading Bulls, who would win any tiebreaker thanks to a 2-1 season series record over the Nets. They don't play again.

The Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo (+425) and reigning winner Nikola Jokic (+700) of the Nuggets are the only other players below +1600 to win MVP.

The two-time winner Giannis is third in the NBA in scoring (28.5 ppg), sixth in rebounding (11.3 rpg), tied for ninth in blocks (1.5 bpg), 14th in field goal percentage (.539) and 20th in assists per game (6.1). He and Jokic (25.3 ppg, 13.9 rpg, 7.4 apg) are the only players averaging at least 25 points, 10 rebounds and five assists this season. 

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