Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
Bruce Brown has been a reliable role player and is the Nuggets leading scorer off the bench. Brown is a two way player that is excellent without the ball and thanks to his cutting ability is able to take advantage of Nikola Jokic's exceptional vision. Brown should play roughly 30 minutes tonight and this is a good match up against a Wolves team that ranks 7th in Pace. I expect Mike Malone to deploy a tight rotation and Brown should continue to get no shortage of opportunities.
I'm expecting a more competitive, faster-paced Game 2, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Jamal Murray to register assists. He had eight in Game 1 while playing 33 minutes. That continued a recent trend in which Murray typically gets 7-plus assists when playing 30-plus minutes. This is a great price on Murray's assists.
The Timberwolves were embarrassed in Game 1 by the Nuggets as Towns was held to 11 points on 5 of 15 shooting. I expect a much closer contest tonight and based on his history against Denver, I'd be surprised if the T-Wolves star didn't at least double that point total. Dating back to the 2019-20 season, Towns is averaging 25-9-4 against Nikola Jokic's team and has gone over this points+assists+rebounds number in 6 of his last 8 against the Nuggets. Look for Minnesota to put a scare into Denver and for KAT to have a big game in the Mile High City.
Nothing went right for the Timberwolves in Game 1. They shot 30.6 percent from behind the arc and 37.0 percent from the field, overall. The result was a 29-point loss. However, it’s not as if the Nuggets put up crazy offensive production in the win. They shot only 11-for-17 from the free-throw line and a modest 45.6 percent from the field. Nikola Jokic played just 28 minutes before fouling out. The Nuggets are 22-15-1 ATS as home favorites, so while the Timberwolves should shoot better in Game 2, I still like the Nuggets to cover.
Murray hit the over on this number in Game 1, nailing four three-pointers on his way to scoring 24 points. This game being played in Denver is key for this prop. During the regular season, he averaged 2.4 three-pointers and shot 38.5 percent from behind the arc on the road. At home, he averaged 2.8 three-pointers and shot 40.8 percent. Including Game 1, he has made at least three three-pointers in 11 of his last 12 home games. The odds here aren’t great, but I still like the over.
Anthony Edwards averaged 36 minutes during the regular season, but played just 28 in the Game 1 blowout in Denver. He took 15 shots after averaging 19.5 in the regular season. On Sunday, Minnesota was visibly fatigued from two play-in games and cross-country travel. The T-Wolves were held to 80 points, fewest for the franchise in seven years. Expect a more energetic effort Wednesday, especially from the T-Wolves' go-to scorer. Coach Chris Finch said he wants Edwards to attack in transition even if it's 1-on-2 or 1-on-3.