Edwards is coming off two disappointing performances in play-in games. He scored only nine points on 3-of-17 shooting in a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers. He was better from the field versus Oklahoma City but did not attempt a single free throw. It’s clear that the Timberwolves' No. 1 option right now is Karl-Anthony Towns. This is an adjustment for Edwards, who held that role when Towns missed four months with an injury. Take his Under one more time as Edwards' prop still is a bit aggressive.

We aren’t changing our strategy just because it’s the playoffs. During the regular season, we bet Jokic to record a triple-double if he was getting plus odds at home. That’s what we’re getting here, so I’m in. At home, he averaged 24.8 points, 13.1 rebounds and 11.1 assists. He came away with a triple-double in both games that he played against the Timberwolves in Denver.

Denver is the more well-rested team and the Nuggets were 25-15-1 ATS at home this season. Minnesota, meanwhile, was sub-.500 ATS overall and just one game above it on the road ATS. My simulations give Nikola Jokic a great chance at yet another triple-double as Denver picks up the double-digit win that covers the spread with some room to spare.