Mavs star Luka Doncic is listed as questionable with a neck injury. He's going to play, but if he's not 100 percent then this could get out of hand quickly. Dallas was a slightly below average three-point shooting team in the regular season and is hitting an unsustainable 50.8 percent from deep in this series. Meanwhile, Clippers stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are basically scoring at will. While I'm going with the moneyline, the Mavs were a much worse ATS team at home than on the road. Clips even this series up.

The reason why the Mavericks were able to win the first two games of this series was that their supporting cast stepped up around Luka Doncic, while no one outside of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George was productive for the Clippers. Doncic dominated in Game 3, but his teammates let him down while Reggie Jackson and Marcus Morris stepped up to provide support for the Clippers’ stars. Starting Jackson over Patrick Beverley was a smart adjustment by the Clippers, and one that I think will help propel them to cover in Game 4, as well.