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Fri 05/28 | 2:30 AM UTC | Portland
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Denver Nuggets 48-26, 35-39 ATS
DEN +3.5
DEN +145
Over 227
Portland Trail Blazers 43-31, 39-34 ATS
POR -3.5
POR -165
Under 227

Expert Picks

Denver 120 @ Portland 115 | 05/28 | 2:30 AM UTC

Portland -175

LOSS

ANALYSIS: With that Denver backcourt still severely short-handed due to injury, it's going to take a super-human effort from regular-season MVP Nikola Jokic to win in this series. He gave one in Game 2, but doing it again in Portland is another matter as I'd expect the Blazers to start doubling him. Damian Lillard has been spectacular so far, averaging 38.0 points and 11.5 assists in the series. Look for Portland to get a major boost from the fans, too, as capacity has been increased to 8,000 after the team was limited to 1,900 during its final four home games of the regular season.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1487 68-33 IN LAST 101 NBA ML PICKS
+350 7-2 IN LAST 9 DEN ML PICKS
+25 2-1 IN LAST 3 POR ML PICKS

Season Splits

48-26, 35-39 ATS
43-31, 39-34 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
47%
35-39
39-34-1
53%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
50%
18-18
15-20-1
42%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
37%
6-10
21-19-1
52%
When Spread was +2 to +5
SPREAD
When Spread was -5 to -2
25%
2-6
7-13-1
35%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
40%
4-6
10-14-1
41%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
44%
11-14
10-12
45%
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
48%
34-36
39-32-1
54%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
47%
29-32
29-28
50%
vs POR
HEAD TO HEAD
vs DEN
20%
1-4
4-1
80%