The Mavericks shot 17.1 percent from 3-point point land in Sunday's loss against Sacramento. That's their lowest percentage since 2018. The Miami Heat have shot more than 50 percent from the field in three straight games. I like the road team in this spot.

The Mavericks have been excellent on the road this season, posting an 18-14 record there ATS. They will likely be without Kristaps Porzingis (knee), but the Heat will also have a compromised depth chart with both Victor Oladipo (knee) and Tyler Herro (foot) out. Add in the Heat having an 11-14-1 record ATS as a home favorite, and I’ll take the points with the Mavericks.

The Mavericks' best defensive effort this year came on New Year’s Day, when they defeated the Miami Heat 93-83. Former Miami Heat player Josh Richardson was a catalyst as the Mavericks limited Jimmy Butler to 0-for-6 shooting. Even with a limited rotation, look for the Mavericks to play a competitive game and threaten Miami's three-game win streak.