Dallas @ L.A. Clippers

Kristaps Porzingis is playing through a sore right knee, so it's no guarantee he'll dominate if he avoids ejection this game. Dallas is 2-7 ATS since the restart. The Clippers should get more from Montrezl Harrell in his second game back. Lay it as the Clips cover late again.

Despite a historic playoff debut from Luka Doncic, the Mavericks failed to cover a 6.5-point spread in Game 1 as two late Kawhi Leonard free throws gave the Clippers an 8-point victory over Dallas on Monday. L.A. was able to force a career-high 11 turnovers from Doncic. A total of 65 percent of simulations by the model have the Clippers covering again in Game 2. They are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.

The Mavericks squandered a 14-point lead in Game 1 and also had some serious misfortune in the final couple minutes that prevented them from covering the spread. The questionable ejection of Kristaps Porzingis alos hurt the offense. Even so, it was an encouraging effort and one that should propel them to another solid effort Wednesday in Game 2.

Dallas was going to win the series opener if Kristaps Porzingis would have remained in the game. He got tossed, and that changed everything. The Mavericks scored only 13 points in the third quarter and failed to cover, too. I was shocked to see that the Clippers had no answers for Luka Doncic. The points are the difference.

Game 1 got the 228 points despite neither team hitting 35 percent of its 3-pointers and the Mavs' Kristaps Porzingis getting ejected in the third quarter. Presumably, Porzingis will play this whole game Wednesday, and considering these are among the two best shooting teams in basketball, odds are at least one of them is going to have a better night from behind the arc. The argument against the Over in any game in this series is Luka Doncic struggling against the incredible Clippers' wing defenders. He scored 42 points in Game 1. He'll have to work for his points, but he's getting them.