Memphis stayed Under the total in its last four games and six of the eight bubble games. The reason was not great defense but rather an offense that was never in rhythm. The Grizzlies came out firing in only one game, and that was against the shabby Blazers who play no defense. Portland won, 140-135. The Blazers will force the issue and get this one Over, just like seven of their eight games in the bubble.

If the Blazers win they're in, but if the Grizzlies win they will go to a winner-take-all game tomorrow. Portland's firepower has been amazing during the restart, winning six of their eight games while having an average score of 126-123. Meanwhile Memphis has gone 2-6 since the restart and lost its second-best player, Jaren Jackson Jr., three games into the bubble. Without Jackson the Grizzlies have slowed down the pace, run more isolation for Ja Morant and are trying to work the ball inside to Jonas Valan?i?nas. Take the Under.

I know we all listened to my advice of fading the Grizzlies from the jump of the restart, but now six points is just ridiculous. Especially with Portland fighting tooth and nail every game in the bubble, including last time out in a miracle win over the Nets. Now all the pressure shifts to Portland in this spot. This is where Memphis thrived all year as the hunter and clearly not the hunted! Take the points!

It's been a rough time in Orlando for the Grizzlies, who went just 2-6. Meanwhile, the Blazers went 6-2 to force this play-in matchup. When these two met in their openers in Orlando, the Blazers won by five points in overtime. The big difference here is that the Grizzlies won’t have Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) available for their rematch. Still, the Blazers are not a good defensive team and defeated the depleted Nets by only one point Thursday. In fact, each of their last three wins have come by three points or fewer. I think they win this game, but I think the Grizzlies keep it close enough in a win-or-go-home situation to where I like taking the points.

The Grizzlies simply don't score enough to keep up with Portland. The Blazers have led the NBA in offensive efficiency in the bubble, averaging 122.5 points per 100 possessions. Memphis has been 18th (out of 22), at 107.1. My model says Damian Lillard & Co. cover more than 50 percent of the time, so you're getting value at this number.