My model says that the Heat cover the spread 70 percent of the time, so you're getting excellent value playing them at this point spread. Miami has been tremendous at home this season, winning 18 of its first 19 games at American Airlines Arena. The Heat enter this one with a seven-game winning streak at home. Sacramento is 7-14 on the road and in the midst of a five-game trip that began with its fourth straight overall loss.