I still have the Warriors rated just one point better than Houston. With Golden State winning by four and six in the first two games, added with the Rockets win in overtime in Game 3, solidifies that these teams are so close in talent. In Game 4 my line is Houston -3. With Steph Curry's slump in the series, one has to wonder if the ankle injury is effecting him more than is being disclosed. Back the Rockets to tie the series.

The Warriors made 42.4 percent of their treys and outscored Houston from the foul line in Game 3, but still lost. They're getting so little from their bench. Look for the Rockets to even the series and cover the small number.

This series has not been as pretty or well-played as I had anticipated, and not just because Steph Curry blew a wide-open dunk (shortly after missing an easy layup). But his fingers are clearly affecting his overall play, and with a handicapped Steph I have a hard time trusting the Warriors on the road against a Rockets team this good.

The Warriors went all-in with their starting lineup in Game 3 with only seven of the 121 points coming from the bench while also committing only eight turnovers. They shot 42 percent from 3-point land and still lost. Steph Curry seems disinterested and talk of Kevin Durant and the Knicks or a new destination may be a distraction. They certainly don't have the same enthusiasm as the previous four seasons. James Harden played much better at home in Game 3 and the Rockets are now 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Rockets get the win.

The Rockets got the better of the Warriors in Game 3 at Houston. The last time the Warriors lost a playoff game, they followed it up with a 27-point road victory. My projections aren't calling for such a blowout, but it's rare to get points on a (mostly) healthy Golden State team. The Warriors cover in more than 60 percent of my simulations.