The Trail Blazers are believed to have an advantage because of their extended time off, but we often see teams hit a flat spot after such a hiatus. The Nuggets are playing on short rest but should be able to easily find their flow. They also have been a tough matchup for Portland, particularly in the past with Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. With Enes Kanter possibly out or severely hampered with a sore shoulder, the Blazers will have a major deficit in the paint. Look for the Nuggets to cover Game 1.

The Nuggets won and covered three of four during the regular season in four close games that all went Over the total. Portland's team rating has been bumped up after its first-round series, while the Nuggets' rating has dropped because it struggled against San Antonio. Their last meeting in Denver on April 5 had the Nuggets -6 in a 119-110 win. Despite the Blazers' outstanding play of late, the valoue is on the Nuggets in Game 1.

The Blazers will be coming into this game fresh after beating the Thunder in five games. Meanwhile, the Nuggets were forced to play seven games in their series against the Spurs, so they haven’t had much time to regroup. Enes Kanter’s shoulder injury is an issue for the Blazers, but I like their chances to win this game, so I’ll take the point Monday.