We're getting about three additional points on the Jazz in Houston than in the first two games of the series. This added value comes at a time when we finally started seeing the same hard-nosed Utah club that split the season series with Houston. The Jazz held the Rockets to 35 percent shooting to win Game 4 and avoid a sweep. The series deficit is still insurmountable but look for Utah to go down swinging Wednesday against a Houston team that could be in a flat spot amid the comfort of its home surroundings.

I don't think the Rockets have any interest in going back to Utah, nor do I think Utah has the gear it needs to reach to beat Houston on the road here. I'm taking the Rockets.

The Jazz have gotten better each game in defending James Harden, and I expect them only to improve in that area in Game 5. Down 3-1, Utah is the more desperate team, and the more desperate team often is the more dangerous team. Take the Jazz to keep it close.

These teams score at a higher level in Houston than in Salt Lake City. The two games in Texas have averaged 214 points, as opposed to 201.5 in Utah. My simulation is predicting that these teams will put up 217 points and says that the Over hits almost 60 percent of the time. Go with the Over.

With its season on the line, the Jazz defended at an elite level and made key shots in Game 4 to stave off elimination. I expect Utah to do the same tonight in Game 5. With long interior defenders such as Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, the Jazz have found an effective way to defend James Harden, and that won't change in Houston. Utah keeps this game close.