This was supposed to be one of the most entertaining matchups of the first round. it has failed to live up to the billing as Portland has mostly dominated while the Thunder have looked out of sorts. Russell Westbrook has struggled all series and his subpar play is a big reason why Oklahoma City is on the brink of being closed out. But he has heard the criticism and should respond with a big performance Tuesday night.

Oddsmakers believe the Thunder are the better team in this series, but so far that's been proven wrong. The line for Game 5 reflects that as well, but the Blazers cover the spread in nearly two-thirds of my projection model simulations. That's a big number. Lay the small amount of points on Portland at home.