I'm typically not a fan of backing a team that's such a public favorite like the Warriors are, and for good reason. Golden State's popularity with bettors is one reason it's only 28-39-1 ATS this season, but there's a major home-road split there. The Dubs are 12-21-1 ATS at home and 16-18 on the road. Not great, but the Warriors are 8-3 ATS on the road in their last 11 against winning teams, and the favorite is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games between these two.

The Spurs have won eight straight games, six of which have come at home. During that stretch, they pulled off impressive victories over the Thunder, Nuggets, Bucks and Blazers. They are 23-12 ATS at home this season, including 8-1 ATS as a home underdog. There’s a chance DeMarcus Cousins (ankle) sits this one out, so I’ll take the Spurs and the points.

The Spurs are amazing at home and they've won eight straight overall, but the Warriors are at another level when they're locked in. Which they are now thanks to that stunning home loss to the Suns. Lay the small number.