These two teams have been two of the better Under teams in the NBA this season. The Under is 8-1 in Denver's last 9 overall, as well as 7-0 in its last seven games on one day's rest. The Under is also 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games, and 7-2-1 in its last 10 conference games.

The Nuggets are coming off a 26-point destruction of the Timberwolves, and now host the Mavericks, who have lost six straight overall and have been especially weak on the road. The Mavs also had a difficult trip to Denver as their flight was delayed by a snowstorm. Luka Doncic probably should sit out and rest his ailing knee, but he plans to play. Lay the points.

My numbers see a get-right game looming for the Nuggets against the depleted Mavericks on Thursday. I'm seeing the Nuggets winning by at least 15 points, which covers the double-digit spread with room to spare. Denver is covering in nearly two-thirds of simulations, so don't be afraid to lay the big number.