Basically, everything that could have gone wrong did in the Pistons’ embarrassing 28-point loss to the Nets on Monday. They were playing the second leg of a back-to-back set and had won five straight heading into that contest, so don’t read too much into one bad outing. They have won both of their last two games against the Heat, including a 23-point victory in Miami a little over two weeks ago. The Heat are only 14-20 ATS at home, including 7-17 ATS as the home favorite. Roll with the Pistons and the points.

The Heat are just 15-19 at home and now face a Pistons team in bounceback mode after shooting 27.8 percent -- lowest in the NBA this season -- in a blowout loss at Brooklyn. Blake Griffin isn't going to go 1 for 10 again. That performance came on the second day of a back-to-back. Detroit should look more like the team it's been recently. The Pistons are 26-14 with Ish Smith in the lineup, and he went off for 22 points and nine assists off the bench in a 23-point win at Miami three weeks ago. Play the small road dog.