These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, yet the Over is 12-3 in their last 15 meetings. That's crazy. Of course, that's not stopping me from taking the Under here because this total is just too high. Plus, while that 12-3 trend is impressive, the Under is 18-14 in Golden State's home games and 19-11-1 when Denver's on the road.

The Nuggets come into Oakland tonight one game behind the Warriors for the West's No. 1 seed. The Warriors are expected to have all their players, no resting like they've been doing lately. The Nuggets won at Golden State early in the season but got blown out 142-111 in Denver six weeks ago. The Warriors have gone 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games and they're just 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Denver has stayed Under in its last seven games, Golden State Under in its last three. Under is the top play here.

The Golden State Warriors have covered just once in their last 10 outings, but my numbers see them getting healthy Friday against the Nuggets and delivering a cash against the modest number. I've got the Warriors winning by double figures in the majority of simulations and beating the spread at least 60 percent of the time. Lay the points.