Indiana and Milwaukee are the two most efficient defenses in the NBA this season. They've met three times already this season and the Under has gone 2-1, but even the game that went over featured only 219 points. That Over was the only time any of the last six meetings between these two have gone Over, and the Under is 9-3-1 when Milwaukee plays a division rival. It's also 24-18 when the Pacers face an Eastern Conference foe. Those trends combined with a total that's a bit too high makes for plenty of value here.

My numbers see a tight game Thursday between the Pacers and Bucks. I've got Indiana staying within five points or fewer and covering this spread in more than 60 percent of simulations. Milwaukee has been covering at a rapid pace of late, so there's been an adjustment and we should take advantage with a solid road underdog getting double figures.