The Warriors won 115-111 at Boston five weeks ago, staying Under the total for the sixth straight meeting. The Celtics have lost five of their last six and stayed Under the total in their last four. They're 8-1 to the Under in their last nine road games, and they should dictate pace here as well. The Warriors are on a 1-9 ATS run and don't have Klay Thompson. Under is the top play Tuesday.

The total on this game has already dropped 1.5 points since it opened, and for good reason. The Under has gone 6-0 in the last six meetings between these two, as well as 4-1 in Golden State's last five games and 8-1 in Boston's last nine road games. Boston's a top-five team in defensive efficiency, and while Golden State's overall defensive numbers haven't lived up to their usual standards, they still pick things up in big games like this one.

No team has been worse at covering than the Warriors, including an 11-19-1 record at home, also dead-last. But the Celtics are just as bad on the road -- their 11-18-1 road ATS mark ranks only ahead of the Wizards. My projection model sees Golden State turning it around here in a big way, winning by double digits and covering in the process.