LeBron absolutely can't afford to lose at home in a primetime TV game against the Pelicans. Look for LeBron to play 40-plus minutes and grab a win for the Lakers. At this time in the season I have to make some pretty big manual adjustments in the model. It sounds crazy, but this is the Lakers season. If they lose this game they have very little chance of making the playoffs. I have the Lakers -7 with the Pelicans limiting minutes for Anthony Davis.

I made the Lakers -8, mainly because Anthony Davis is playing reserve minutes so I took 1.5 points off of their power rating. The Lakers opened the break with a five-point win at home over a much better Rockets team and beat New Orleans in L.A. by eight back in December. The Lakers defense allows six less points per game at home than on the road.