On paper it's a clash of a top-five offense against a top-five defense. But the Over has hit in five of the last seven Utah games and five of eight for OKC. The simulations from my computer model average 10 points above the current total. The Over looks good.

These two teams are currently separated by five games in the Western Conference standings with the Thunder having won eight of their last 10 games. The Thunder are 16-10-1 ATS at home, including 14-9-1 ATS when they are the home favorite. The Jazz lost by nine points the last time these two teams met in Oklahoma City and they are just 14-15 ATS on the road, so I like the Thunder to cover this modest line.

The Thunder gave up 131 points in their last game before the break, and I think that will lead to increased defensive intensity Friday. Look for the Under to improve to 18-7 in these teams' last 25 meetings.