The Mavericks are favored at home tonight against the Heat, and that's typically been good news for Under bettors. Dallas has only been favored 22 times this season, but the Under has gone 15-6-1 in those games. The Under is also 15-6-1 in Dallas' games against the Eastern Conference this season, as well as 17-5-1 in its last 23 games overall. The Under has also gone 8-3 in Miami's last 11 road games as well as 13-9 against Western Conference teams this season.

The Mavericks made some significant changes at the trade deadline, so it’s hard to take too much stock in their season stats. However, it is noteworthy that they are 19-8-1 ATS at home. They also defeated a very good Blazers at home Sunday. The Heat have also played well on the road, but I still like the Mavericks chances of covering this small line.