Sacramento has won and covered its last three meetings with the Heat, including a 123-113 win when they met in late October. The Kings have covered eight of their last nine at home and have gone 19-9 ATS at home this season. The Heat ended a three-game losing streak Tuesday at Portland. Newly acquired Harrison Barnes is expected to make his Kings debut. I'm on the Kings at home.

Benefits of scheduling is often an overlooked oddsmaker indicator. Tonight the Sacramento Kings have a chance to impress on a small line in their fifth straight home game. Yet they're facing a Heat team that's re-blending together and aiming to get to .500 prior to the All-Star break. Grab the Heat.

The Kings have covered eight of their last nine home games even after getting blown out by Houston. They just added Harrison Barnes. And Sacramento has beaten Miami three straight times. With Justise Winslow mired in a terrible slump, I'll back the Kings to cover.

My data sees at least 225 points hitting the scoreboard Friday between the Heat and Kings, giving us major value on the Over. These clubs are surpassing the posted total in 65 percent of simulations. The Over is on a 16-5 run in this series and 5-1 in Sacramento.