With their top two players held out for rest, the Spurs not only will lack firepower Wednesday, but they also likely will have to rely on deliberate execution in the half court in order to generate offense. The Warriors could also be a bit flat knowing San Antonio isn't at full strength. Those factors give us value on the Under against what feels like a bloated total under the circumstances.

The numbers say going with the Spurs here might be the right choice here. They are 13-13 ATS on the road while the Warriors are 10-15-1 ATS at home. However, you can throw those stats out the window with DeMar DeRozan (rest), LaMarcus Aldridge (rest) and Derrick White (heel) all ruled out. The Warriors are going to feast against San Antonio's backups, so I’ll take them to cover.