This series pits two of the three worst cover teams against each other. The Cavaliers are getting double-digit points for the first time all season. When I look at Game 1 of their last four series, including the 2017 NBA Finals, the Cavaliers don't play with a sense of urgency. Game 2 after a loss or Game 3 at home, yes, they come stronger. Cleveland's last four series openers: Warriors 113-91, Pacers 98-80, Raptors 112-113, Celtics 108-83. The Warriors also covered both meetings this season. Warriors get the cover Thursday in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

This is a larger spread than anything we've seen recently in the Cavs-Warriors' annual battles. During the just-completed regular season, Golden State beat Cleveland by 10 and by 7. Andre Iguodala's absence is key as he's the best LeBron James defender. Grab the points with the team that's being told all week it has zero chance of even competing.

I'm projecting 221 points for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, giving us a strong position on the Over. The Over is cashing in 61 percent of my simulations.