I don't expect Chris Paul to play, and even if he did he would be a liability. The spread is showing he's worth up to 5 points and that was the case in Game 6 as well when the Warriors rolled. The thing that stands out most here is the total, which has dropped sharply from Game 4 at 226.5. Six of their last seven meetings have stayed Under, including the last four. Despite all that, I'm on the Over.

Look for another strong start by the Rockets, but eventually, Golden State's superior depth and balance should take over. Chris Paul won't be close to 100 percent even if he plays. And he's irreplaceable for Houston. The Warriors, meanwhile, have players who can fill Andre Iguodala's role. Wth the favorite on a 4-1 ATS run in this series, I'm laying the points with the defending champs.

After the first quarter of Game 6, the Rockets appeared unbeatable. They led by 17 and were playing inspired defense. Then the second half arrived and Houston had no answers, scoring nine fourth-quarter points en route to a humiliating 29-point loss. But now, they're back home, where they are 41-9 straight-up this season. The Rockets have covered the spread in their last two games at Toyota Center, including a resounding 127-105 Game 2 victory. Although Chris Paul is less than likely to suit up for Game 7, my projections show the Rockets keeping this game within one possession. Take the points.