At this point, sportsbooks are basically dangling the Rockets like a low-hanging fruit, and I'll go ahead and take the bait. Sure, the Warriors could flex their muscle in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday with a statement win. But the Rockets earned the home-court advantage and must exploit it to have a chance in this series. They won two of three in this series during the regular season, and their two wins at Utah showed they could be peaking at the right time. There's value on the short home favorite.

I'm expecting the Warriors to finish off this series in fewer than seven games, but this spread in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals shows a lack of respect to the team that had the best regular-season record in the NBA and earned home-court advantage in the postseason. The Rockets aren't quite as strong of an overall team as the Warriors, and they can be prone to letdown spots. But this isn't one of them. Houston should give one of its most inspired performances in recent memory, and it's a gift that we're not laying at least four points.