This line is a bit inflated due to Stephen Curry's return in Game 2, a game in which the Warriors failed to cover. Look for a monumental effort at home from the Pelicans, who have covered 10 of their past 11. Grab the points.

The Pelicans are the top Over team in the NBA at 52-36. Their average score has been 112-110 this season and things get amplified even more when their opponent likes to run as well. In their last 13 meetings with the Warriors, 10 of the games went Over, including both playoff games so far. New Orleans has gone 30-13 to the Over at home. Over is the play.

How does a team score 66 points in the paint and attempt only nine free throws? That's what happened to the Pelicans in Game 2 at Oakland, while the Warriors took 27 free throws. It was home cooking aided by the officials, and the Pelicans still almost won. I'm expecting the Pelicans' home-court edge to be larger than the number suggests Friday. They're playing at a season-best right now and have gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11. Take the points with New Orleans.