Indiana has covered both games in this series,and it took an epic game at home by LeBron James for the series to be tied. Now, the Pacers go home and they've got the Cavs in some trouble. They've had the edge on Cleveland all season, winning and covering both meetings in Indiana. They're now 5-1 ATS against the Cavs this season. Indiana is the play again Friday in Game 3.

I need to ride LeBron James. The Cavs will continue to get better as the playoffs get deeper. Game 3 is a must-win for the Cavs and that is all we need to do to get an ATS cover. I have the Cavaliers as 4-point favorites in this spot.

The projection model sees Game 3 of the Cavaliers-Pacers series flying Over the total with room to spare. The first two games of this first-round went Under, but the pace should pick up in Indiana. My numbers say expect at least 219 points to hit the board and crush this total. The Over is hitting in nearly 70 percent of simulations.