The Bucks are a very solid team with better depth now that Malcolm Brogdon is back in the starting line up. I have Milwaukee four points better than the Celtics. The only reason Boston is the favorite is reputation. In fact, the Celts' only advantage is Brad Stevens. Milwaukee will have the three best players on the court in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe. Al Horford is the best player on the Celtics. Grab the points.

Based on recent trends alone, this game screams Over. In seven of their last nine head-to-head matchups, the Over has cashed. The Bucks have gone Over in eight of their last 10; and the Over his hit in six of the Celtics' last seven games. In their regular-season finale, Milwaukee coughed up 80 first-half points to the 76ers. In 61 percent of my simulations, the Over scores. Take the Over.

Down the stretch, whenever the Bucks played a top team, they faltered. Back Boston to improve to 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games, and to cover for the fifth time in the past six meetings.