It's a trendy -- and perhaps justified -- position to be down at the moment on the Warriors, who slept walk through the last quarter of the season while showing an alarming aversion to defense. That said, they are fortunate to be paired in the first round with the short-handed Spurs, who don't have enough firepower to take advantage of Golden State's weakened condition. Game 1 between these teams last year in Oakland -- a near-upset by San Antonio -- was a wake-up call for the Warriors, and it will be remembered Saturday.

The Spurs can't be satisfied with their defensive intensity entering the postseason. The Over has cashed in four of their last five games, and in two of them, San Antonio yielded 122 points. Even without Stephen Curry, the Warriors are an offensive juggernaut. Nearly two-thirds of my projections indicate the final score at least two possessions over this total.

The Warriors have failed to cover five straight home games, while the Spurs have failed to cover seven straight road games. Something has to give in Game 1. I just don't think the Stephen Curry-less Warriors can flip the switch to the point they cover this substantial number. The upward line move has created value. Take the well-coached Spurs and the points.

The Spurs have a slight coaching edge, but they've lost eight straight on the road and failed to cover their last seven. We're going to see if the Warriors' recent pause in effort can be rebooted in the playoffs. They've only won seven of their last 17, and two of the wins were against NBA-worst Phoenix. Golden State is even worse against the spread, going 6-17 ATS since Feb. 28. I don't think the Warriors are good enough without Curry to just flip a switch and play well. Take the points with the Spurs.