During the regular season, the Heat and 76ers played three times in February and a fourth time on March 8. None of the matchups ended over Saturday's set total. A key takeaway from the regular-season contests was the level of sporadic play. The Sixers blew nearly a 30-point lead only to win by six once, and the Heat surrendered a 23-point edge in a loss. With playoff basketball you expect teams to hone in defensively. Yet here, look for the fluid offense showcased in the regular season to continue at a higher level. Grab the Over.

The 76ers are on a 16-game winning streak and eight of them were without Joel Embiid. That streak means absolutely nothing now. Embiid is still out, which is a 4.5-point drop-off. Looking back at the streak, only three of the 16 victories were against postseason-bound squads. Last, but not least, the Sixers have very little playoff experience. The Heat are well-coached and very successful on the road with a 25-13 record against the spread.

It seems crazy to get in the 76ers' way right now, but this is a good matchup for Miami in Game 1, not having to face Joel Embiid. Yes, Philly went 8-0 without Embiid to close the regular season, but six of those wins came against lottery teams. And Philly failed to cover three of its last four games, suggesting oddsmakers finally caught up to the juggernaut. Look for a big performance from Hassan Whiteside and a tight, entertaining game. While it's not super-significant that these teams split four regular-season meetings, it is worth noting Miami won the two most recent matchups. Grab the points.

Joel Embiid is out indefinitely, but the 76ers are still churning wins without him. They come in winning 16 straight (11-5 ATS), the last eight without Embiid. Everyone on the squad has been picking up the slack, such as J.J. Redick, who has averaged 24 ppg in his last four. Ben Simmons is nearing, or accomplishing, a triple-double almost nightly. Heat center Hassan Whiteside has played Miami's last seven games, covering just twice. Sixers get the cover.