Simulation Picks
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
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Expert Picks
The idea that Rajon Rondo is worth 4.5 points to the Bulls on their home court is just laughable. Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Stephen Curry have all caused line movements equal to three points to their teams during the regular season. The public perception here is basically saying Rajon Rondo = LeBron James. This might have been true in 2007. Sure, the Celtics could play well and win this game, but the Bulls aren't 4.5 points worse with Rondo out of the lineup. Enjoy the free points with the Bulls.
The Celtics have been completely outplayed by the Bulls in the first two games, both at home, and now their backs are against the wall on the road. They're 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games, but they have a few things in their favor tonight, besides desperation, starting with Bulls catalyst Rajon Rondo being out. That's 17 rebounds, 20 assists and 23 points from the first two games, gone. As a back story, Boston played closer to its true rating on the road this season, going 23-16-2 ATS. Celtics get the win and cover.
I can't see the Celtics losing three straight. Back Boston to make this a series.
With the Celtics winning outright in 63 percent of my simulations, it makes sense to play them on the money line at +110. Despite their Game 2 defeat, the Celtics are still 20-10 coming off a loss this season. I'll back them to make this a series.
Perhaps the Celtics need to get away from home to start playing up to their seeding. I'm projecting Boston to win outright 63 percent of the time and cover 65 percent of the time. This series isn't over. Back Boston.