The wrong team is favored in this must-win game. The Hornets are playing the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Wizards on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Heat are playing on two days rest in Charlotte. Miami should win this outright.

The Heat have stumbled, losing five of their last eight games. Wednesday's road game against the Hornets is crucial in the Eastern conference for playoff seeding. Both the Heat and Hornets are on the outside looking in as the regular season winds down. Look for the Heat to take advantage of the Hornets playing in a back-to-back scenario and win this one with their offense.

My simulations suggest the Heat are headed toward a straight-up win as a small underdog when they visit the Hornets on Wednesday. Miami has covered four of its last five road games, and seven of nine against teams with winning records. The Heat have also covered their last four when playing on two days’ rest. Back Miami here to get another road win.