Regression Alert! Yankees are leading the league by nearly five percent in Overs percentage. They happen to be facing the Twins, who have cashed their Over five games in a row. Home-plate umpire D.J. Reyburn?s generous strike zone will play a large role in keeping this total below the double-digit mark. Fading the public and taking the Under Thursday afternoon is the tough, but smart play.
16-5 IN LAST 21 MLB PICKS | +1209
My projections not only see the Yankees beating the Twins on thursday in more than 75 percent of simulations, but I've got New York winning by an average of two full runs. This data is enough to justify laying the thick price on the favorite. The Twins have lost four straight starts by Kyle Gibson against the Yankees.
3-0 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS | +300
The Indians historically are a phenomenal bounce-back team after a loss. Last year, they were among the league leaders in this category and, after getting blown out Tuesday, I look for manager Terry Francona to continue this trend. Lance Barksdale is umping this contest, and he has a 250-164 money-line record on home teams. This is reasonable price with Trevor Bauer (2.67 ERA) on the mound for the Indians. He has given up a modest five runs in his past three starts against the Cubs.
The White Sox were the worst-rated offense in the game before blowing up for 10 runs on the Mariners on Monday. But they came back down to earth on Tuesday, getting shut out. They've scored 74 runs in 20 games, but 35 of those came in three huge outbursts. The Sox have scored two or fewer in eight of their last 10 games. Expect another low number against veteran ace Felix Hernandez, who's settling down after a rough start. Only one player on the Sox roster has faced King Felix more than five times -- Jose Abreu, and he's 2-for-14 lifetime. With James Shields yet to find his form for Chicago, go with Seattle on the road.
26-15 IN LAST 41 MLB PICKS | +836
The Angels have beaten the Astros the last two days, but this is pitching matchup couldn't favor Houston any more than it does. Justin Verlander's career resurgence has been remarkable -- since joining Houston, he's 8-0 with a 1.08 ERA. That's crazy to bet against at any stage, but consider how successful he's been against this Angels lineup: L.A.'s batters are a lifetime .096 against him; Albert Pujols and Mike Trout are a combined 3-for-35. Ian Kinsler is the only Angles batter with a career average higher than .111 -- he's 1-for-4. Against Nick Tropeano, who allowed five runs over 5.1 innings in his last start, take the Astros even at the steep price.
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