We told you ahead of Game 1 of the AL Championship Series between the Yankees and Astros in Houston that one main reason there was such a heavy lean on big underdog New York was because betting is legal in that state (and neighboring New Jersey) and not in Texas. That also likely plays into the fact that despite Houston's 4-2 win, bettors are even heavier on the Yankees for tonight's Game 2 at BetMGM. Click here for model picks.
Thursday's win was Houston's sixth in eight games this year vs. the Yankees, whose only two victories were in walk-off fashion. The Yankees' 17 strikeouts in Game 1 were their second-most strikeouts in a game in postseason franchise history, trailing only the 18 in their 2020 ALDS Game 2 loss against the Rays. Since Dusty Baker took over as manager in 2020, the Astros have now won Game 1 in six different playoff series. In each of the previous five instances, they have gone on to win the series.
On the updated series line, Houston is now -340 and New York +285. The favored exact result is Astros in six at +285, and the Yankees winning the next four in a row is +1500.
Right-hander Luis Severino takes the hill tonight for the Yankees He was limited to 19 starts during the regular season due to injury and was 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Severino was 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA in two starts vs. the Astros. The 28-year-old pitched 5 2/3 innings in Game 3 of the ALDS against Cleveland, striking out six with no walks and three earned runs en route to a no-decision. Severino has yet to win a postseason game against the Astros in three starts with one no-decision and two losses.
At +120 on the moneyline (that opened at +140), New York is taking 78% of the bets and 75% of the money.
Houston counters with lefty Framber Valdez, who was 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.16 ERA during the season and had an MLB-record of 25 consecutive quality starts – although he did struggle in two of his final three starts overall. His lone start vs. the Yankees was June 23 in New York and Valdez took a no-decision, allowing three earned on just two hits over six. With his sinker-curveball combo, Valdez had a 66.5% ground-ball rate this season, by far MLB's highest. That should come in handy against the Yankees, who led the majors by far in homers.
On the total of 7, 58% of the money is on the Under and 55% of the tickets.
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