Yankees post-All-Star break MLB odds: New York set at 87.5 wins, favored to miss playoffs; likely would mean manager Aaron Boone fired

Oddsmakers are not confident that the Yankees will rally for a playoff spot in the second half.
Hero Image

The New York Yankees have made the playoffs four straight seasons, three of those under Manager Aaron Boone. Most believe that Boone will not be brought back for the 2022 campaign – if there even is one with a potential lockout very possible with no CBA after this year – if the Bombers miss the playoffs. That's what William Hill Sportsbook oddsmakers believe, setting New York at +150 to play extra baseball this fall and -180 to miss.

Now that we have reached the break, there's little chance Boone is fired during the season considering New York "only" has 73 games left. The Yankees also haven't fired a manager in midseason since 1990 when it was Bucky Dent who was canned. 

Keep in mind that the MLB playoff format has reverted to its pre-2020 form, which means three division winners and two wild-card teams in each league make it. Last year, an additional two wild-card teams in each league were in and owners wanted that again, but the MLBPA wouldn't agree without other labor concessions.

It's fair to say the Yankees are not winning the AL East Division as they are 46-43, fourth in the East and eight games behind first-place Boston. Those teams open a weekend series at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, the first game out of the break (and lone game Thursday). The Red Sox are -120 to win the East and the Yankees +1200.

In the AL wild-card standings, New York sits sixth, 4.5 games out of the second spot currently held by Oakland (52-40). The Mariners (48-43) also are ahead of the Yankees and the Blue Jays and Indians (both 45-42) are tied with New York.

Oddsmakers give the Yankees an Over/Under of 87.5 regular-season wins. That would not have come close to an AL wild-card spot in 2019 (last full season). In fact, 87.5 wins wouldn't have been enough for an AL wild-card spot since 2017.

Expect the Yankees to be pretty active in the trade market ahead of the July 30 Trade Deadline. Rockies shortstop Trevor Story has been a rumored candidate as has Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo. The team could also use starting pitching with Corey Kluber and Luis Severino still on the injured list and not particularly close.

One issue for Yanks GM Brian Cashman is that he has been told by ownership to stay under $210 million luxury tax threshold. New York's projected payroll currently is around $202 million.

How should you bet on every MLB game? And which teams could cost you your bankroll? Join SportsLine now to see who wins every MLB game, all from the model that simulates every at-bat 10,000 times.

Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays